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Live odds + 5-point settlement-rule checksHow it works ↓

Prediction-market settlement audits

Know why the market moved, and exactly how it settles.

MarketWeaver matches Polymarket price moves to the official source named in the contract (BLS, Federal Reserve, SEC, NHC, Federal Register) and runs a 5-point fine-print check for timezone, trigger, and fallback traps. No black-box probability guesses, and no unnamed sources.

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Current Market Highlights

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Featured catalystFed & Rates.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Live market: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Catalyst date: Oct 28, 2026

Yes93%No7%
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: the announcement counts

The short version

Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%.

It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

New here? How to read MarketWeaver
-Yes chance
24h vol
$4.6M
Today
-1.7 points
Price gap
0.1¢

Fine print: Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps;

View 5-point rule check →Compare with Kalshi ⇄

Popular · Economics & Fed

Full feed →

Odds are Polymarket prices shown for research only. Tapping an outcome opens the 5-point rule card; MarketWeaver does not place trades.

Latest attributed movesfeed →
  • Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?46s ago
    Source: Credible-reporting consensus

    Contract moved +4.5 points in 15m (9.2¢ → 13.7¢); last-hour volume 2.8× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $95 bid / $64 ask.

  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?2m ago
    Named source: portwatch.imf.org

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (11.5¢ → 11.5¢); last-hour volume 3.4× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $147.9k bid / $20.2k ask.

  • Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.52m ago
    Named source: Official league stats

    Contract moved -0.8 points in 15m (0.9¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 7.6× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $138 ask.

  • Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A2m ago
    Named source: hltv.org

    Contract moved +2.5 points in 15m (62.0¢ → 64.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; contract does not name an official .gov resolution source; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $50.7k bid / $756 ask.

Primary-source catalyst tracker

Every move of 3 points or more is checked against the .gov feed named in the contract. Green = official release in window; amber = zero releases (orderflow or rumor).

5-point rule checks

Who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes (announced vs. signed), backup rules, and other venues, plus buyers vs sellers near the price, for every market.

Cross-venue rule diff

Paste a Polymarket URL and Kalshi rules side by side. Spots “arbitrage” that is actually a settlement mismatch, net of fees.

Sample rule-trap cards

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
Fine-print risk: High (55/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk High 55
1.
Who settles it (official source)
NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories · https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2.
Deadline and time zone
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventLandfall at Category 5 intensity as reported in an NHC advisory.
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season officially ends Nov 30 but the window runs to Dec 31.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm can be upgraded or downgraded in reanalysis, so a venue using the TCR can settle differently from one that uses the initial advisory.

U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U) · https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Preliminary PrintInitial monthly BLS CPI news release (first print at one decimal place); subsequent revisions are excluded on both venues.
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) Strict inequality: Kalshi "> X%" requires at least X + 0.1% at one-decimal precision, whereas Polymarket range brackets include both endpoints; (3) Headline CPI-U vs. Core CPI (less food and energy).
MarketWeaver: Plain-English research for Kalshi and Polymarket markets.